ABOUT THE LIVING LIFE IN COSTA RICA BLOG

I (Vicki Skinner - aka "THE Sarong Goddess") created this blog in 2007 to share DETAILED Finds•Lists•Info•Events•Experiences to help bring more EASE to people living in, visiting or thinking of moving to Costa Rica since DETAILS are NOT easy to find!
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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Feds attempt to count ExPat population overseas

I'd LOVE to see an updated version of this since I think LOTS has changed since this study was created•conducted in 2014.  What do YOU think - based on your world around you??

Interesting how LOW the Costa Rica growth was estimated compared to most of the other countries!!!


Feds attempt to count Gringo population overseas
By the A.M. Costa Rica staff

The U.S.  Federal Voting Assistance Program has commissioned another effort to find out how many U.S. citizens live abroad.

The Virginia applied research firm Fors Marsh Group LLC got the job. The firm's Sidney Carl Turner said online that a complex statistical model developed by the company was able to produce annual estimates for the overwhelming majority of independent countries for the period 2000 to 2010.

He said his firm estimated that the global overseas civilian population increased from approximately 2.7 million in 2000 to 4.3 million in 2010, an increase of approximately 60 percent. In 2010, approximately half of this population was located in the Western Hemisphere and a third in Europe, he added. The Middle East, south and central Asia and Africa, while containing a relatively small fraction of overseas citizens throughout the 2000 to 2010 period, also saw faster rates of growth than the two leading regions, he said.

The voting assistance program is run by the U.S. Department of Defense to help service personnel overseas vote in U.S. elections. The Defense Department has a pretty good idea of where each service man or woman is located. After that the computations become fuzzy.

Fors Marsh Group used a number of existing statistics to come up with numbers. Some countries keep accurate lists of U.S. citizens. The firm also went to schools and universities to get data on students studying oversea. Then there is the Social Security information on retirees and others in the system.

The firm also recognized that there are many types of U.S. citizens overseas, including persons born in the United States and quickly removed to their parents' country.

For Costa Rica, the firm estimated that there were 41,746 U.S. citizens of various types here as of 2010. That was a 74 percent increase over the total in 2000 and reflected a 5.72 percent annual increase.

The company said that Costa Rica in 2010 had 4,681 U.S. Social Security recipients and 6,261 U.S. students here. The firm also said that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service reported receiving 1,660 copies of Form 2555 from U.S. taxpayers in Costa Rica for that year. This is the form where individuals report foreign earned income.

The report has some obvious shortcomings. For example, Afghanistan showed strong growth in U.S. citizens, mainly through the presence of U.S. military and contractors.

Turner said there was a substantial degree of uncertainty in the estimates but maintained that the results were a good start.
Estimates of U.S. citizens
in selected countries


Country

Estimate
2000

Estimate
2010

Annual
rate
growth
2000
-2010

Central America
Costa Rica
23,581
41,141
5.72%
74%
El Salvador
12,654
30,422
9.17%
140%
Guatemala
18,445
41,746
8.51%
126%
Honduras
12,455
24,042
6.80%
93%
Nicaragua
2,478
14,340
19.19%
479%
Panamá
11,771
18,551
4.65%
58%

South America (Selected)
Brazil
21,513
67,623
12.13%
214%
Bolivia
1,550
3,384
8.12%
118%
Colombia 17,523 41,922 9.11% 139%
Ecuador
35,608
77,226
8.05%
117%
Uruguay
1,783
7,130
14.86%
300%
Venezuela
15,121
45,415
11.62%
200%

Caribbean
Dominican
Republic

54,406

79,530

3.87%

46%
México
467,880
1,109.974
9.02%
137%
Source: U.S. Voting Assistance Program


Because the method used was statistical and based on extrapolation from hard data, the firm set up a 95 percent confidence intervals around the averages.

In the case of Costa Rica, that method gave a range of from 25,882 to 65,394 U.S. citizens in 2010. In the case of the world totals, the range was from 2,622,359 to 7,790,496.

That seems to be a lot of wiggle room.

Still, the estimates appear to be more solid than the guesses that have been used in the past.

A handful of countries, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, Germany, and Australia, continue to represent slightly over half (approximately 52 percent) of the population of U.S. citizens abroad, the report said.

East Timor with 18 U.S. citizens had the lowest number in the world, and Bhutan with 24 was second to last, according to the estimates.

In Central America Nicaragua showed the biggest percentage increase from 2000 to 2010. The estimate showed that U.S. citizen population increased from 2,478 to 14,340.

SOURCE:  AMCostaRica.com/061614.htm#31



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